Outlook to 2027 for Canadian Fish and Seafood has been published.
Excerpts about tuna:
Price predictions for tuna are expected to increase towards recent highs, in the absence of significant aquaculture capacity to enhance supply.
Canada produces little tuna, but imports significant amounts. Increasing prices will lead to a greater trade deficit for tuna.
Projections (summarized by the FCC):
Global consumption of seafood products will grow approximately 9% by 2027, driven in large part by continued population growth and rising income in certain parts of the world.
Supply increases are expected to be more limited as the rate of growth in aquaculture slows leading to high prices for fish and seafood over the medium-term, despite the relaxation of prices in other agri-food markets where supply is more robust.
Canada’s seafood export value is driven more by prices than by volume, and the particularly high prices for lobster and crab seen in recent years are expected to continue.
Exports will ultimately vary around a higher plateau (approximately $8B) in the coming decade compared to the previous plateau of $4B from 2000 to 2010.
Lobster’s share of Canada’s seafood export value is projected to increase from about 30% to 40% as Canada solidifies its position as the single largest net exporter of lobster
Import demand in several of Canada’s main historical trade partners (EU, U.S., Japan) and domestic demand is expected to remain stable, while export opportunities will grow in China, South Korea, and countries of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and to some degree Mercosur countries, particularly Brazil.
Non-tariff barriers, particularly the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) will continue to pose challenges for Canadian fisheries (wild capture and aquaculture). Over the next years non-tariff barriers affecting fisheries will typically be driven by conservation, ecosystem protection, and “social concerns”.